World Oil Production at 3/31/2014–Where are We Headed?

Another informative post from Gail Tverberg at Our Finite World.

I’m going to keep re-blogging Gail’s posts because it’s important for people to understand what is happening on the oil depletion scene, and Gail does the background work far better than I could. Read the comments too; she often has more to say there.

Our Finite World

The standard way to make forecasts of almost anything is to look at recent trends and assume that this trend will continue, at least for the next several years. With world oil production, the trend in oil production looks fairly benign, with the trend slightly upward (Figure 1).

Figure 1. Quarterly crude and condensate oil production, based on EIA data. Figure 1. Quarterly crude and condensate oil production, based on EIA data.

If we look at the situation more closely, however, we see that we are dealing with an unstable situation. The top ten crude oil producing countries have a variety of problems (Figure 2). Middle Eastern producers are particularly at risk of instability, thanks to the advances of ISIS and the large number of refugees moving from one country to another.

Figure 2. Top ten crude oil and condensate producers during first quarter of 2014, based on EIA data. Figure 2. Top ten crude oil and condensate producers during first quarter of 2014, based on EIA data.

Relatively low oil prices are part of the problem as well. The cost…

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2 Responses to “World Oil Production at 3/31/2014–Where are We Headed?”

  1. notsomethingelse Says:

    I’m glad Gail shows the US production as a bubble because that is exactly what it is. Take out their tight oil production, which is where the bubble lies, and they are in quite a heavy downturn which has been in effect since the ’70s and can be clearly seen in one of the other included charts in her article. You can’t forward plan very far based on bubbles, which is why I think they are keen to get their hands on Russian oil reserves. Controlling Ukraine is the first step in that process.

    One thing Gail didn’t mention, unless I missed it, was the ever upward demand side of the equation due to population increase and more folk slotting into the so-called ‘middle class’ consumer group.

    Demand will eventually exceed supply. The rock will eventually meet the hard place, and we will be somewhere in between.

    Like

  2. narf77 Says:

    Cheers for sharing this Bev 🙂

    Like

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